Polls, seats & majorities
Where recent polls put the parties, how that would translate into seats, and where they stood in 2023. Polls measure the mood of eligible voters at one moment; they are not a forecast, and each has a margin of error of roughly two to three points.
Poll average now
A snapshot, not a prediction.
- Die Linke22%+9.8 vs 2023
- CDU19.6%−8.6 vs 2023
- AfD17.8%+8.7 vs 2023
- GRÜNE15.2%−3.2 vs 2023
- SPD12%−6.4 vs 2023
- BSW4.4%—
- FDP2.8%−1.8 vs 2023
- Others7.9%
Mean of the latest poll from each institute published within 30 days of the newest one (5 polls: pollytix 10/8/26, INSA 9/18/26, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen 9/17/26, Civey 9/17/26, Infratest dimap 9/10/26). Same rule for every party.
Trend since the 2023 election
Dots are single polls; each line follows the running average of the latest poll per institute. Per cent of second votes. FDP and BSW are only shown where a poll listed them.
Theoretical seat distribution
- Die Linke 33
- CDU 29
- AfD 27
- GRÜNE 23
- SPD 18
130 seats by Hare/Niemeyer for parties at 5 % or more of the poll average. Direct mandates and Überhang/Ausgleich seats, which can change this, are not modelled. Majority: 66 seats.
Which combinations would have a majority
- Die Linke+CDU+AfD89 seats
- Die Linke+CDU+GRÜNE85 seats
- Die Linke+AfD+GRÜNE83 seats
- Die Linke+CDU+SPD80 seats
- CDU+AfD+GRÜNE79 seats
- Die Linke+AfD+SPD78 seats
- Die Linke+GRÜNE+SPD74 seats
- CDU+AfD+SPD74 seats
- CDU+GRÜNE+SPD70 seats
- AfD+GRÜNE+SPD68 seats
Every combination of up to three parties that reaches 66 seats and needs each of its members. Arithmetic only: it says nothing about who would govern with whom.
Latest poll from each institute
| Institute | Published | n | CDU | SPD | GRÜNE | Die Linke | AfD | FDP | BSW |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| pollytixfor The Goodforces | 10/8/26 | 1,494 | 18 | 12 | 14 | 25 | 17 | 3 | 5 |
| INSAfor Volt Berlin | 9/18/26 | 1,000 | 20 | 12 | 15 | 21 | 18 | — | 5 |
| Forschungsgruppe Wahlenfor ZDF-Politbarometer | 9/17/26 | 1,611 | 20 | 12 | 15 | 22 | 18 | — | 4 |
| Civeyfor Der Tagesspiegel | 9/17/26 | 3,000 | 20 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 18 | 2.5 | 4 |
| Infratest dimapfor ARD | 9/10/26 | 1,527 | 20 | 12 | 16 | 21 | 18 | — | 4 |
Polling data: dawum.de, licensed ODbL. Institute and date shown for every poll. dawum.de ↗ · Data as of 2026-10-27
The 2023 result
- CDU28.2%
- SPD18.4%
- GRÜNE18.4%
- Die Linke12.2%
- AfD9.1%
- FDP4.6%
- Tierschutzpartei2.4%
- Die PARTEI1.4%
- Others5.3%
Second votes, repeat election of 12 February 2023. Turnout 62.9%. · Source: Landeswahlleiterin Berlin ↗
The 2021 result
- CDU18%
- SPD21.4%
- GRÜNE18.9%
- Die Linke14.1%
- AfD8%
- FDP7.1%
- Tierschutzpartei2.2%
- Die PARTEI1.8%
- Volt1.1%
- Others7.4%
Second votes, election of 26 September 2021. Turnout 75.4%. This election was annulled by Berlin’s constitutional court because of organisational failures on polling day and repeated in full in 2023; these remain its official final figures. · Source: Landeswahlleiterin Berlin, Statistischer Bericht (PDF, p. 6) ↗
A left–right placement of the parties, based on published academic classifications, will appear here with its sources. Until then, the official Wahl-O-Mat is the best way to compare positions on the issues you care about.
Wahl-O-Mat ↗